政府卫生支出与卫生总费用的时变关系分析

Analysis on the Time-varying Relationship between Government Health Expenditure and Total Health Expenditure

目的：刻画政府卫生支出与卫生总费用的时变关系。方法：建立状态空间模型,并利用卡尔曼滤波估计状态变量。结果：1978—2007年,卫生总费用的政府支出弹性不断提高,且1978—1997年弹性增速快于1998—2007年弹性增速。2008—2009年弹性下降,2010—2012年弹性在0.723~0.725之间徘徊。结论：进一步深化卫生体制改革,提高政府卫生支出利用效率。

Objective：To describe the time-varying relationship between government health expenditure and total health expendi-ture.Methods：Establishing the state space model and estimating the state variables with Kalman filter.Results：From 1978 to 2007,the elasticity of total health expenditure of government health spending continued to improve, and the elasticity grew faster from 1978 to 1997 than the period from 1998 to 2007. The elasticity decreased from 2008 to 2009 and it varied between 0.723 and 0.725.Conclusion：It was needed to impel the health system reform and improve the efficiency of government health expenditure.