基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备可靠性分析

Reliability Assessment for Weaponry Based on Bayesian Networks

针对复杂系统,尤其是国外进口武器装备可靠性判断的局限性,研究了一种基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性评估方法。结合系统连接逻辑与贝叶斯网络的映射关系建立了可靠性评估模型,并用该方法对机载吊舱和航空动力系统的可靠性进行了分析。结果表明,该方法不仅能够快速计算系统的可靠度,确定出某一组件(部件)对系统可靠性的影响程度,而且可以为其他进口装备的分析提供参考。

Aiming at the deficiency in reliability analysis for complex systems,especially imported weaponry,a method for reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks is studied. A model is built according to the mapping relationship between connection logic and Bayesian networks. Assess the reliability of airborne pod and air power system. The results show that this method can not only calculate a system’s reliability quickly,ascertain influence degree to a system of a module,but also provide reference for other weaponry reliability assessment.