成都市电力消费与经济增长的实证分析

Empirical Analysis between the Electricity Consumption and the Economic Growth of Chengdu

运用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型与Granger因果检验,研究分析了电力消费与经济增长之间的关系.结果显示,尽管成都市电力消费与经济增长之间的关系在短期内具有一定波动性,但从长期来看,两者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,并且前者是后者的Granger原因.本文研究为指导电力工业的发展和规划提供了科学依据.

The relationship between the electricity consumption and the economic growth of Chengdu city is studied and analyzed by unit root test, co-integration analysis, error correction model and Granger Causality Test. The re- sults show that some volatility exists between the electricity consumption and the economic growth in short terms. But in the long term, there is a stable equilibrium relationship between them, and the former is the granger cause of the latter. So, this paper can provide a scientific basis for the development and planning of the electric power in- dustry.