个人所得税改革与收入再分配改善——基于2008年和2011年自然实验的微观模拟分析

Personal Income Tax and the Income Redistribution——Simulation Analysis Based on 2008 and 2011 Natural Experiment

运用微观模拟分析方法,以2008年和2011年个人所得税改革的自然实验为背景,对我国个税改革的收入再分配效应进行实证分析。结果发现:两次税改对公平收入分配均为正调节,2008年税改的收入再分配效应优于2011年税改的收入再分配效应;2011年个税制度对缩小单位间收入分配差距效果显著,但对缩小各阶层收入差距作用不大。个税累进性高与平均税率低的矛盾是导致个人所得税收入再分配效应较弱的重要原因。个税改革必须坚持国民收入的初次分配与再分配相结合的原则,采取财政收支手段并行的政策措施,完善税制、提高普通居民收入水平,从真正意义上缩小居民收入差距。

This study uses micro-simulation analysis to analyze income redistribution effects of the personal income tax system reform in 2008 and 2011. The results show that these two tax reform have positive effects for fair income distribution. And the positive effects of 2008 is better than 2011. Tax reform of 2011 has a remarkable role for narrowing the income gap in different ownership units, but less effect in different income groups. The im- portant reason why income redistribution effects is weak is the contradiction between high progressivity and low average tax rate. Personal income tax system reform must insist on the principle of combining primary distribution with redistribution, the policy measures of fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure. Government should perfect the tax system and raise the income level of ordinary residents, to narrow the income gap authentically.