五大原则完善税收预测方法体系

Improve Tax Revenue Forecast Method System by Five Principles——Based on the International vision and the Practice of Jiangsu Wuxi Local Taxation Bureau

税收预测在组织税收收入、实施有效征管、编制财政预算和完善财税体制等方面具有重要作用。税收预测的支撑是预测体系,核心是预测方法。本文对国际上各种税收预测方法体系进行了比较,并结合江苏省无锡市地税局的税收预测实证分析,就完善我国税收预测应用,提出五大原则性对策建议。

Tax revenue forecast has played an important role in the organization of tax revenue, the implementation of effective administration, compilation of budget and improvement of tax system, etc. The foundation of tax revenue forecast is forecast system, but key issue is forecast method. By comparing the present tax revenue forecast method system globally and combining empirical analysis of tax revenue forecast of Wuxi Local Taxation Bureau, this paper presents five principle suggestions to promote the application of national tax revenue forecast system.