基于情景分析的武夷新区主导产业发展研究

Scenario Analysis of Leading Industry in Wuyi New District4

采用情景分析法构建武夷新区主导产业发展的短期和长期情景,并结合层次分析法对每种情景进行分析。研究结果表明:短期情景下,资金投入对武夷新区主导产业发展最为重要。长期情景下,环境则是制约该区产业发展最重要因素。无论是长期情景还是短期情景,武夷新区都应优先发展旅游、商贸服务和林产加工三大产业。

This paper uses scenario analysis method to construct short- term scenario and long- term scenario and adopts analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） to analyze the each scenario. Research shows that fund is the most important factor for short- term scenario,while environmental condition can influence industry development in long- term scenario,and Wuyi new area should give priority to develop tourism,business service and forest industry.