干旱区绿洲县域土地利用规划中土地生态安全预测——以新疆阿瓦提县为例

Forecast of the Land Ecological Security at County Level in the Arid Oasis Based on Planning of Land Utilization——A Case Study of Awati in Xinjiang

土地生态安全是土地资源可持续利用的核心和基础。通过运用土地利用变化、生态风险空间分析方法,基于阿瓦提县土地利用总体规划(2010—2020年),根据规划基期年及期末年土地利用结构特征,测算了土地利用生态风险指数。并运用ArcGIS 10.0对生态风险采样结果进行半变异函数分析和空间插值,分析阿瓦提县土地利用生态风险动态演变和空间分异特征。结果表明,阿瓦提县土地利用总体规划对全县土地利用空间结构进行了较大调整,阿瓦提县土地生态风险有明显区域性,生态安全状况由南向北逐渐加重,且北部较高风险区域有向西北和西南方向蔓延趋势。在未来土地利用变更中应加强生态环境保护意识,在阿瓦提绿洲构建良好的生态用地格局,提高全县生态系统服务功能。

Land ecological security is the core and foundation of the sustainable use of land resources. This pa- per estimated ecological risk index based on the varieties of land use in the overall planning of land utilization of Awati at two time point-the base year and the end year through change of land use and the method of eco- logical risk spatial analysis. After samplings were carried out, the semi varogram analysis and block Kriging were used by ArcGIS 10.0 to analyze the dynamic evolution and spatial distribution of ecological risk of the land use in Awati. The results indicated that the spatial structure of land use had been a major adjustment in the overall planning of land utilization, the spatial distribution of land ecological risk was imbalanced in Awa- ti, ecological security was becoming more severe gradually from south to north and the area with high ecolog- ical risk had the tendency to spread from north to northwest and southwest. The change of land use in the fu- ture, ecological awareness of environmental protection should be strengthened to build an ecological land pat- tern in Awati oasis and improve the ecosystem services in the county.