高等教育扩招背景下收入预期对高等教育选择的影响

Determinants of College Choice after the Higher Education Expansion

本研究尝试从人力资本理论出发,探讨收入预期对高等教育学历层次和院校类型选择的影响。研究发现,收入预期越高,个人越倾向于选择本科而非大专学历,越倾向于选择高选拔性的院校而非一般本科院校;收入预期风险对高等教育选择没有显著影响;收入预期对不同群体的高等教育选择具有异质性影响;收入预期显著影响女生和城市学生的学历选择,收入预期仅对男生和农村学生选择"985"和"211"高校具有显著的正向影响。

This study intents to explore the influence of earnings expectation on higher education choice of Chinese students. Based on data generated from the 2011 College Development Survey for Freshmen, this paper finds that students with higher income expectations have a significantly higher probability of choosing baccalaureate instead of sub-baccalaureate degree, and are more likely to choose more selective postsecondary institutions. However, the earnings risk seems to have no effect on college choice. Moreover, earnings expectation has produced a heterogeneous effect on sub-groups.