矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学仿真研究

A Study of Sustainable Development Model Based on System Dynamics in the Mineral Resource-intensive Areas

矿产资源密集型区域经济发展与人口增长、资源消耗、环境污染和体制滞后之间的矛盾日益凸显.如何协调他们之间的关系成为区域经济可持续发展的当务之急.对区域内各子系统之间的相互关系和内部作用机制进行了分析,以黑龙江省为例构建了矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学模型并对该区域的标准发展模式、传统发展模式、准绿色发展模式和绿色发展模式进行仿真模拟.结果表明:人口和谐发展、资源高效利用、环境污染有效控制、严格实施生态制度监管以及大力加强区域间融合的绿色发展模式是当前矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的最佳选择.

The contradiction including the economic development,population growth,resource consumption,environmental pollution and institutional lag is increasingly prominent in the mineral resource-intensive area.How to coordinate the relationship has become the primary task fot the sustainable development of regional economy.In this paper,system dynamics model of sustainable development in the mineral resource-intensive region was constructed by a case study in Heilongjiang,and then the internal mechanism and the relationships of the region between the various subsystems are analyzed.The standard development model,traditional development model,quasi-green and green development model are simulated respectively in this region.Consequently,the green development model,which advocates the harmonious development of population,the efficient use of resources,effective control of environmental pollution,ecological monitoring system and the strengthening of inter-regional cooperation,is the best choice.