基于政策文本内容分析的政策发展趋势预测研究

Prediction Method Study of Policy Development Trends Based on the Content Analysis of Policy Texts

一直以来，研究者对于政策发展趋势和演进变化的判断与预测存在着单一使用定性方法或定量方法、且对定性方法的应用多于定量方法的现象。本文通过调研、梳理国内外预测政策发展的相关研究方法，在总结各类方法的特点基础上，提出一种集成内容分析和对比类推方法思想的定性定量相结合的政策发展趋势预测方法，并利用这一方法开展了相关实证应用。研究结论证明了这种研究方法在预测政策发展趋势中具有可行性。

The researchers always use qualitative or quantitative methods to judge and predict the development trends and evolution of public policies, and moreover, they use qualitative methods more often than quantitative ones. In this article, we propose a prediction method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis which integrated the thought of content analysis and comparative analogy based on summarizing the features of researches on predicting policy development at home and abroad. Meanwhile, we prove the feasibility of the method in the prediction of policy trends through empirical research.