随机模拟型综合评价模式及其求解算法

Stochastic Simulation Model of Comprehensive Evaluation and the Solution

针对类似于"球队实力"比较的评价问题,通常很难以一次的比赛给出绝对的评价结论,提出了随机模拟型的综合评价模式。即通过参数设置的方式,可将传统评价模式转化为随机模式,求解得到方案之间优劣关系比较的可能性排序结论。可能性排序结论是对绝对形式评价结论的拓展。首先,对随机模拟型评价模式进行了介绍;然后,分析了传统评价方法向随机模拟型评价模式转化的一般思路;在此基础上,基于"在提升排序链出现的可能性基础上,进一步保证排序链的稳定性"的规则,给出了求解可能性排序结论的两种方法。最后,通过算例对随机模拟型评价模式的应用进行了说明,并将其与绝对形式评价结论进行了比较。该评价模式是对传统评价模式的拓展,可进一步拓宽综合评价理论的实际应用范围。

To the problem such as comparison of team capacity which could not reduce an absolute ranking result , we propose a new solution called stochastic simulation model of comprehensive evaluation , that is, we transfer the classical evaluation methods into the model of being stochastic run by parameters setting , in order to get the possibility ranking among all the objectives of their superior comparison .Possibility ranking is an expanding of absolute ranking.First, we introduce the stochastic simulation model of comprehensive evaluation .Then, we consider the normal idea of transferring classical methods to stochastic simulation model .Based on this , two methods of solving the possibility ranking result are given on the rule of “first increasing the possibility of the pos-sibility ranking result and then enhancing its stability”.At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate the use of this evaluation model and the result is compared with that of absolute form .This evaluation model is the exten-sion of traditional model , which can further broaden the application of evaluation theories .