黄河宁蒙河段冰凌预报模型研究进展

Research Progress on the Ice Forecast Model of Ningxia- Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River

在不断吸收和借鉴国内外冰凌预报模型研究成果的基础上,经过多年努力,黄河冰凌预报模型研究和应用取得较大进展,一些较为成熟的模型已经应用于业务生产,为黄河防凌提供了技术支持。黄河宁蒙河段凌情形势日趋复杂,黄河防凌对冰凌预报提出更高要求,需要开发能够反映冰凌物理机制、提供全河段动态预报的冰凌数学模型,以满足冰凌预报客观需求;基于冰水动力学理论的冰凌数学模型是冰凌预报模型的发展方向。

Based on the absorption and reference of ice forecast model achievements at home and abroad,the research of Yellow River ice forecast model has been made rapid progress in recent decade,and some mature models have been used in ice forecast operation,which has supplied tech-nical assistance to the Yellow River ice disaster prevention decisions. More complicated ice situations set a still higher demand on the quality of ice forecast. The new ice forecast model needs to be developed to meet the ice forecast operation,which can reflect the river ice physical mechanism and dynamically forecast ice characters over Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River. Mathematics model based on ice hydrodynamics theory is the development direction of ice forecast model.