启东地区肝癌生存率长期趋势分析

Long-term survival trends for liver cancer in Qidong： 1972 to 2011

目的 对江苏省启东地区1972至201 1年全人群肝癌登记病例进行生存率分析,为预后评价及防治提供依据.方法 收集江苏省启东地区1972至201 1年全人群肝癌登记病例资料,生存（死亡）情况随访截止于2012年4月.用SURV3.01软件计算1至15年观察生存率（OS）及1至15年相对生存率（RS）.结果 共收集28 398例登记病例资料.肝癌1、3、5、10、15年OS分别为15.18％、6.23％、4.26％、2.79％及2.39％,1、3、5、10、15年RS分别为15.47％、6.60％、4.69％、3.41％及3.29％.其中男性1、3、5、10、15年OS分别为14.95％、6.05％、4.06％、2.67％及2.26％,1、3、5、10、15年RS分别为15.23％、6.41％、4.47％、3.26％、3.12％;女性1、3、5、10、15年OS分别为15.89％、6.79％、4.87％、3.17％及2.80％,1、3、5、10、15年RS分别为16.20％、7.20％、5.37％、3.87％、3.82％,男女性生存率差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）.＞ 15岁～≤35岁,＞35岁～≤45岁,＞45岁～≤55岁,＞55岁～≤65岁,＞65岁～≤75岁及＞75岁各年龄组的5年RS分别为4.42％、4.29％、4.96％、4.67％、4.67％、6.35％; 10年RS分别为3.17％、2.98％、3.44％、3.47％、3.75％、11.27％.20世纪80年代以来,肝癌1、3、5、10、15年OS均有上升趋势.结论 启东地区全人群肝癌登记病例总体生存率在逐步提高,早期诊断和治疗方法的进步可能是肝癌生存率提高的影响因素.与发达国家相比,肝癌生存率的差距正在缩小,但仍有提高的空间.

Objective To determine the survival rates of liver cancer in Qidong during the years 1972-2011,according to the data from a population-based cancer registry,in order to assess the long-term trends for prognosis of this cancer type.Methods The deadline of the last follow-up for survival status of the 28,398 registered cases was April of 2012.Cumulative observed survival （OS） and relative survival （RS） rates were calculated using Hakulinen＇s method performed by the SURV3.01 software developed by the Finnish Cancer Registry.Results The 1-,3-,5-,10-and 15-year OS rates were 15.18%,6.23%,4.26%,2.79% and 2.39%,respectively; the 1-,3-,5-,10-and 15-year RS rates were 15.47%,6.60%,4.69%,3.41% and 3.29%,respectively.For males,these OS rates were 14.95%,6.05%,4.06%,2.67% and 2.26%,and these RS rates were 15.23%,6.41%,4.47%,3.26% and 3.12%,respectively.For females,these OS rates were 15.89%,6.79%,4.87%,3.17% and 2.80%,and these RS rates were 16.20%,7.20%,5.37%,3.87% and 3.82%,respectively.No statistical differences were found between the male and female groups （P 〉 0.05）.The 5-year RS rates for age groups 15-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,65-74 and 75＋ years-old were 4.42%,4.29%,4.96%,4.67%,4.67% and 6.35%,and the 10-year RS rates were 3.17%,2.98%,3.44%,3.47%,3.75% and 11.27%,respectively.Remarkable improvement was seen for the 1-,3-,5-,10-and 15-year OS rates in this setting since the 1980s.Conclusion The survival outcome from Qidong registered cases with liver cancer has shown gradual progress over the past four decades.Early detection and improvement of therapies may be responsible for the improved prognosis of liver cancer.While the disparity gap of survival between this area and developed countries is narrowing,there is still a need for improving the survival in Qidong.