政府债务削减的政治经济学分析——来自发达国家长期历史的启示

An Political Economy Analysis of Successful Government Debt Reductions:From a Long-Term Historical Perspective

始于2008年的金融危机严重损伤了发达经济体的公共财政状况,各国至今仍在艰难地寻找着债务问题的解药,如何实现成功的政府债务削减已经成为发达国家面临的集体困境。作者试图从长期历史中寻找这一问题的答案。通过对典型发达国家1880年至2009年间政府债务百年史中成功的债务削减周期进行实证分析,得出如下结论:首先,实现成功的政府债务削减更依赖支出紧缩型的财政巩固政策。其次,长期经济增长能够显著增加债务削减成功的概率。再次,通货膨胀与利率政策相配合能够起到更好的效果。最后,沉重的债务负担往往会成为各国政府化解债务困境的动力。然而,在不同的历史时期,由于世界经济体系的变迁与重塑、政府债务微观结构的变化,上述因素对于政府债务削减的影响存在着巨大差异,曾经被历史证明行之有效的政策在今天未必适用。此外,政治与法律因素同样扮演了重要角色:民主化程度更高以及实施财政规则的国家更易于实现成功的政府债务削减;与传统观点不同,国内政治竞争性的增强会使执政者更为关注目益恶化的债务僵局以赢得选民与声誉,可信地降低债务水平;不同的法律起源同样制约着政府债务的削减,普通法系能够为债务削减提供更为良好的法律环境以促进债务削减的成功。

The current global financial crisis has taken its toll on the public finances of advanced economies,and they still do not find a way to achieve a balanced budget and reduce government debt.How to achieve a successful government debt reduction has become a collective dilemma faced by developed countries.This paper attempts to find solutions to this problem from a long-term historical perspective.Using data for the period 1880-2009,this paper identifies factors determining successful government debt reductions.Our findings suggest that firsdy,successful debt reductions are mainly driven by fiscal consolidation efforts focusing on reducing government expenditure.Secondly,long-term real GDP growth also increases the likelihood of a successful debt reduction.Third,the combination of inflation and interest rates policy contributes importantly to debt reductions.Fourth,high debt servicing costs play a disciplinary role to stop and reverse the increasing debt ratios.However,past experiences are not necessarily prescriptions for the future,given changes in macroeconomic environment and in government debt composition.In addition,political and legal factors also play an important role in the government debt reduction process;the country with higher degree of democratization and national fiscal rules is easier to achieve successful government debt reduction.Contrary to conventional wisdom,greater political competition makes the government pay more attention to the debt problem and reduce the debt level.Legal traditions also have significant effect on government debt reduction;common law is able to provide a more favorable legal environment for debt reduction.