摘要
基于武汉市1990-2012年的时间序列数据,通过VAR模型对其现代服务业发展、产业结构升级及经济增长质量提升三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果显示,现代服务业发展不论在长期还是短期都构成了武汉市经济增长质量提升的重要推力,对促进产业结构升级也有重要贡献。然而,产业结构变动在当前还难以推动经济增长质量不断提升。同时,经济增长质量的提升对现代服务业发展和产业结构升级构成了一定的反馈效应。
Based on 1990 -2012 time series data in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, this essay analyses the relation between the three of modern service industry development, up- grading of industrial structure and improvement of economic growth quality by VAR Model. The results show that the development of modern service industry constitutes the important thrust of Wuhan to improve the quality of economic growth in the long or short term, and it also plays an important role for upgrading of the industrial structure. However, on the other hand, the industrial structure change fails to have a significant contribution to enhance the quality of its economic growth in the current. Meanwhile, improving the quality of economic growth, to some extent, has a feedback effect on the development of modern service industry and upgrading of industrial structure.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期54-59,共6页
Urban Problems
基金
武汉市社会科学基金项目(13013)
关键词
现代服务业
产业结构
经济增长质量
VAR模型
modern service industry
industrial structure
quality of economic growth
VAR Model
