“广场协议”之后日本经济泡沫化原因再探——基于泰勒规则的日德比较分析

The Bubblization of Japan's Economy after the Plaza Accord:A New Analysis Based on Taylor Rule

关于1985年"广场协议"对日本经济的影响,国内有不少误解,认为其是日本经济泡沫化的直接原因。但通过比较1985年之后日本、德国的经济,以及其政策背景,基于著名的货币政策规则——泰勒规则,分析两国货币政策的实际宽松程度发现:1987年至1989年的大部分时间当中,日本的利率水平是过低的,最严重时低于理想的利率水平1%左右。而同一时期德国的利率水平,则没有出现持续的过紧或过松。从政治经济学视角分析当时日本货币政策的出台背景,其经验教训可资中国借鉴。

As for the influence of 1985＇s Plaza Accord on Japanese economy, there are some misunderstandings in China, which regard the accord itself as the direct cause of Japan＇ s bubble economy in the late 1980s. Compared the economy and policies in Japan with that of Germany in late 1980s, this article, based on the well- known monetary policy rule which is called Taylor Rule, analyzes to what extent in fact those two monetary authorities had exerted an easy monetary policy. It turns out that in the period from 1987 to 1989, the interest rate in most of the time in Japan was quite low, with the maximum gap between practical interest rate and ideal rate around 1 percentage. At the same time, the rate in Germany was more appropriate according to the ideal standard. In that context, some conclusion is reached relating to the background for what Japan employed such monetary policies from the political economy perspective, as well as the experiences and lessons for China.