中、日、韩与东盟自由贸易区贸易扩大效应的比较——基于引力模型的实证分析

A Comparison of Trade Expansion Effect in ACFTA, AJFTA and AKFTA——An Empirical Research Based on Trade Gravity Model

由于全球经济一体化进程不断受挫,区域经济合作受到越来越广泛的关注,极大地促进了区域内各国自由贸易的发展。特别是东亚地区受到1997年金融危机的影响,加之北美和欧盟自由贸易区快速发展的刺激,使得区域合作步伐加快,东亚各国从中获取经济收益。然而各国的收益不尽相同,东盟是南南经济合作中的典范,中、日、韩与其构建的三个自由贸易区对三国贸易产生不同程度的影响。文章基于引力模型对三个自由贸易区的贸易扩大效应进行实证分析,比较分析影响三个自贸区贸易扩大效应的因素,从而为中日韩自由贸易区的构建提供借鉴。

The economic globalization is in stagnant condition, while the regional economy integration is gaining more and more attention. The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 affected East Asia seriously, and the rapid development of NAFI＇A and EU stimulated East Asia, which prompts the development of regional economic cooperation in East Asia and brings benefit to countries. However, the profit may vary among different countries. ASEAN is a typical example of South-South economic cooperation. China, Japan and Korea are establishing economic cooperation with ASEAN, which affected the three economies. Based on Trade Gravity Model, the paper shows an empirical research on the comparison of trade expansion effect of the three free trade areas. By comparing the different factors and strategies of China, Japan and Korea, the paper offers some suggestions concerning the establishment of the Free Trade Area of China, Japan and Korea.