中韩自由贸易协议及其对东北亚经济的冲击

Sino-ROK Free Trade Agreement and Its Economic Implications for Northeast Asia

2014年朝鲜半岛情势发生重大变化,其主要原因是中国领导人习近平上台以来调整外交政策的优先顺位。更明确而言,即习近平上台以来积极推动以构建"新型大国关系"为主轴的对美国外交政策。而在此同时日本安倍(Shinzo Abe)政府则力图制造中美矛盾,使两强龃龉,导致G2破局,为日本再度崛起寻求机会。最佳的例证就是2014年7月日本防卫大臣小野寺五典(Itsunori Onodera)在华府的战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)讲话中提及日本是个大国(日本政界领导者很少使用),并称日本也在寻求以自己的方式在这一区域成为大国。另一方面,国力式微的美国因见中共国力如日中天,无法单独对抗,因而企图利用中日钓鱼岛领土纷争与日本的积极反中制造对美国有利的战略优势,盼能逼迫北京做出经济让步。2014年7月,习近平访问韩国,与朴槿惠达成协议在是年底完成中韩FTA,构建中韩经济为主轴的东北亚经济整合模式以对台湾、朝鲜、日本及美国施压,同时为同年11月APEC高峰会营造有利的局面。

The axis of international politics on the Korean peninsula has changed in 2014 due largely to the emergence of Chinese top leader Xi Jinping. With an aim to propse ＂new model of major-country relations＂ with the United States, President Xi decides to reprioritize China＇s policy toward Northeast Asia and make it a core part of that strategy. However, Shinzo Abe＇s government attempts to trigger Sino-U. S conflicts in order to make Japan emerge again as Asia＇s power. The salient example of this was Itsunori Onodera＇ talks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He proposed that Japan was a big power and making efforts to rise in its own way. Meanwhile, the U. S exploits the disputes over Diaoyu Island so as to force China to make economic concessions. In July. 2014, President Xi made his trip to Seoul and reached an agreement with Park Geun-hye to sign bilateral FTA by the end of this year. This represents a tactical shift of China＇s approach to Northeast Asian economic integration from focusing on China-ROK-Japan trilateral FTA to China-Korea FTA, and at the same time creates a favorable situation for the APEC in Nov. 2014.