金砖体系下中国双边出口效率及其影响因素分析——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

Determinants of China's Bilateral Export Efficiency under the BRICS System:An Empircal Study Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

文章通过构建随机前沿引力模型,在分析金砖体系下影响中国出口主要因素的基础上,测算了中国与主要伙伴国及地区的出口效率,并量化评估了人为因素对中国出口效率的影响。分析结果表明,中国出口对供求双方经济规模的变化尤为敏感,地理区位等特征并不构成影响中国出口的主要因素;中国与欧亚发达国家的双边出口效率仍待提升。此外,关税、自由贸易协定安排及APEC合作机制等人为因素构成了影响中国出口效率的重要因素。

Based on the empirical analysis of the main determinants of China＇s export with the stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper calculates the bilateral export efficiency between China and its main partners, and analyzes the quantitative impact of artificial factors on China＇s export efficiency. The result shows that China＇s exports are especially sensitive to the change in supply and demand. Characteristics such as geographic location are not the key determinants influencing China＇s export. The bilateral export potential between China and some developed countries of Europe and Asia still needs to be improved. Besides, tafiff, free trade agreement and APEC cooperation mechanism are the impotant artificial factors which determine China＇s export efficiency.