上市公司总体并购活动季节性研究

Research of Listed Companies' Aggregate Merger Activities Seasonality

本文应用X12季节调整法对中国上市公司总体并购活动数量时间序列进行检验发现:总体并购活动存在显著的季节性,3月和4月、8月、12月是总体并购活动3个旺季。"一年之计在于春"的中国传统文化、股市月份效应和政策利好消息;天气效应和股市月份效应;盈余管理和并购题材炒作可能分别是3个旺季的成因。研究结论有助于监管机构制定政策保护中小投资者利益;也有利于引导并购投资人理性决策把握最优并购时机。

In this paper, we used X12 seasonal adjustment model to test Chinese listed companies aggregate merger activities time series, found aggregate merger activities of Chinese listed companies was significantly seasonal, March and April, August, December are three peak seasons of aggregate merger acitivities. The Chinese traditional culture ＂planning a year in spring＂, monthly effect and good news of policy; weather effect and monthly effect; earnings management and merger speculation may be the causes of three peak seasons. Research findings will help regulators develop policies to protect the interests of small investors, also encourage merger investors make decision rationally to capture the optimal timing of mergers.