摘要
In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen＋Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that （1） the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a （-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a）. Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of-1.1 times/10a （-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a） was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a （-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a） was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. （2） Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal character- istic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao＇ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. （3） On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Au- tumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.
In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen＋Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that （1） the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a （-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a）. Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of-1.1 times/10a （-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a） was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a （-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a） was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. （2） Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal character- istic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao＇ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. （3） On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Au- tumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.
基金
Major Project of High-resolution Earth Observation System
