配电网投资效益评价与决策模型研究及应用

Research and application of distribution grid investment effectiveness evaluation and decision-making model

目前,配电网评价体系往往偏重于规划成效、安全性、可靠性等某一方面的内容,项目的可行性研究报告缺乏对项目的投资效益的论证,在投资决策方面也往往仅根据历史数据进行简单的比例分配。针对上述问题,从配电总体投资效益,单体项目投资效益,投资决策等方面全方位地建立了35 k V及以下配电网投资效益评价与决策模型。提出19项用于评价单体项目投资效益的新指标、计算指标得分的评分函数、计算配电网总体投资和单体项目投资效益得分的评价模型,根据投资效益评价得分高低判断配电网总体投资效益优良和安排单体项目投资优先顺序。提出以电网规模和售电量为基础,以年度单体项目投资效益评价得分高低为导向的年度投资决策模型。以某地区所辖供电公司35 k V及以下配电网及下年度项目为例,验证了该模型科学实用性,对建立以投资效益为导向的配电网评价与投资决策工作体系有重要意义。

Currently, the distribution network evaluation system is often biased towards a particular aspect such as content planning effectiveness, safety, reliability, etc. The project’s feasibility study is lack of the demonstration of a project’s investment efficiency. And investment decisions are often only simply based on historical data. Facing with these problems, this paper concerns the aspects of the overall investment effectiveness, single project investment effectiveness, investment decisions and establishes the investment effectiveness evaluation and decision-making model of 35 kV or below. This model proposes 19 new indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of single project investment, and gives out the scoring function of calculating the index score. It also gives out evaluation model of calculating distribution network’s scores of the overall investment and monomer investment’s efficiency. According to the investment effectiveness evaluation scores, it determines the level of overall investment effectiveness and set priorities of single project investment. This paper also proposes annual investment decision model based on the grid scale and electricity sales and the score level of annual single project investment benefit. A 35 kV distribution network is taken as an example to test and verify the scientific usefulness of the model. It has great significance to the distribution network’s evaluation and investment decisions.