中国与新兴市场国家贸易影响因素及出口潜力分析被引量：1

下载PDF

导出

摘要本文通过利用引力模型,分析影响中国对新兴市场国家出口的主要因素。并就中国对19个新兴市场国家的出口潜力进行了估算。结果发现中国对绝大部分新兴市场国家存在出口过剩的情况,中国需要调整出口结构和质量以保证对外贸易的稳定,促进我国经济的增长。

作者郭凤忠

机构地区中石化第五建设有限公司

出处《商业时代》北大核心 2014年第36期12-13,共2页 Commercial

关键词引力模型新兴市场国家出口潜力

参考文献9

1鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(10):21-35. 被引量：150
2单文婷,杨捷.引力模型在中国与东盟贸易中的实证分析[J].亚太经济,2006(6):16-19. 被引量：63
3盛斌,廖明中.中国的贸易流量与出口潜力:引力模型的研究[J].世界经济,2004,27(2):3-12. 被引量：454
4Anderson J E, van Wincoop E. Grav- ity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle[J]. The American Economic Review, 2003, 93 (1) 5.
5Anderson J E. A theoretical founda- tion for the gravity equation[J]. The Ameri- can Economic Review, 1979, 69 ( I ) 6.
6DeardorffA. Determinants of bilateral trade: does gravity work in a' neoclassical world? [M].The regionalization of the world economy. University of Chicago Press, 1998 7.
7Vercneil Julien, Emerging Countries: Brazil - Russia - India - China. Economic change and new challenges[M], Paris: Br hal, 3rd Edition, 2012 8.
8Helpman E, Krugman P 1L. Market strncture and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition and the international economy[M].The MITpress, 1985 9.
9Krugman P.Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade[J]. The American Economic P.eviev,', 1980, 70 ( 5 ).

1王荣昌等主编.《世界近现代史》[M].吉林人民出版社,1981..
2IMF. World Economic Outlook: Trade and Finance. Washington, D. C.: IMF, 2002.
3ITC (International Trade Center). "TradeSim-The ITC Simulation Model of Bilateral Trade Potentials: Background Paper. " Document prepared by ITC market analysis section, final draft, 2000.
4Kalbasi, H. "The Gravity Model and Global Trade Flows. "2001, http://www, ecomod.net/conferences/ecomod2001/papers-web/KALBASI, pdf.
5Linnemann, H. An Econometric Study in International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1966.
6Anderson, J. "A Theoretical Foundation of the Gravity Model. " American Economic Review 69 (1), 1979.
7Bergstrand, J. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Mieroeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. " The Review of Economics and Statistics 20, 1985.
8CIA. World Fact Book, 2002, http://www, cia. gov/cia/publieations/factbook/index, html.
9Cyrus, T. L. "Income in the Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade: Does Endogeneity Matter?" Tht Journal of International. Trade, Vol. XVI, No. 2, 2002.
10Deardorff, A. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Classical World?" NBER working papers 5377, 1995.