覆盖中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮模型的研究及适用

A high-resolution typhoon storm surge forecast model covering the whole China's coastal areas and its application

精细化风暴潮预报是目前风暴潮预报重点发展方向之一,本文首次建立起了一个覆盖整个中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮数值模型,克服了以往分区域数值模型的不足,该模型在中国沿海地区的分辨率达到300m左右。模型采用了并行计算,并对2012年和2013年灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了数值检验,计算精度和计算所用时间都能够满足业务化运行的要求。本文同时还根据中国气象局、美国国家气象局等5家主要台风预报机构给出的24h台风预报,对2013年度灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了24h数值预报检验,检验结果表明:根据中国气象局台风登陆前24h预报可以得到更准确的风暴潮预报结果,其预报结果优于其他各家预报结果。该结论可以为今后的台风风暴潮预报中台风路径的选取提供重要的参考。

High-resolution storm surge forecast is one of the newest trends in the field of storm surge forecast. In this paper,a new high-resolution forecast model that covered the whole China＇s coastal areas was constructed, which have overcome the drawback of previous sub-regional numerical forecast model. The grid resolution near coastal areas was about 300 meters. Parallel computation was employed. The accuracy and computation time met the requirements of operational forecast through the numerical tests of typical typhoon storm surge in 2012 and 2013. 24 hours typhoon forecasts of Five agencies were also utilized to carry out the tests. The results showed that the most accurate storm surge forecast result is obtained according to China Meteorological Administration＇s ty- phoon forecast in 2013. The conclusion provided an important reference for the future storm surge forecast.