我国农区城镇化时空格局及其影响因素——以河南省为例

The Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Urbanization of China's Agricultural Area and Its Influential Factors: the Case of Henan Province

我国农区人多地少、产业发展滞后,城镇化发展动力不足,大多低于全国平均水平,深入探讨农区城镇化格局与发展要因对于推进农区城镇化进程十分必要。以河南省为例,综合运用变异系数、空间自相关和逐步回归分析方法,分析2000—2010年该省城镇化的时空格局及影响因素。结果表明:近10年间,河南省县域城镇化的整体水平显著提高,且表现出"高慢低快"(城镇化率高的地区增长缓慢,城镇化率低的地区增长迅速)的趋势,县域间城镇化率差距不断减小;河南县域城镇化水平整体空间集聚特征不显著,而独立区域城镇化水平的空间集聚,特别是低水平城镇化空间集聚特征明显,缺乏高水平城镇化集中区;人口密度、人均GDP、非农产业发展和城镇居民收入水平等已经成为当前推动河南城镇化发展的重要因素。

The agricultural area of China has a large population with relatively little（arable） land, weak industry development, and its urbanization is lack of motivation, mostly below the national average. It is necessary to deeply probe the pattern and developmental factors of urbanization in agricultural area, so as to promote the process of urbanization. Taking Henan Province as an example, the author uses the methods of coefficient of variation, spatial autocorrelation and stepwise regression analysis to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in Henan Province and its influential factors during 2000-2010. The results show that： in recent decade, the overall level of urbanization in the counties of Henan Province has increased significantly,and the evolution of urbanization rate shows a＂high- slowlow-fast＂（areas with high urbanization level grow slow, areas with low urbanization level grow fast） trend, and the gap of urbanization level among the counties is narrowing. The overall spatial agglomeration characteristics of Henan＇s urbanization were not significant, but the spatial agglomeration of individual location, especially the characteristics of spatial agglomeration of low level of urbanization was obvious, lack of a high level of urbanization clusters. Population density, per capita GDP, non- agricultural industry development and the income of urban residents have become the important factors affecting Henan＇s urbanization.