基于信息熵的贵州三穗县域土地利用结构分析及其GM预测

Analysis and GM Prediction of Land Utilization Structure at County Level Based on Information Entropy in Sansui County,Guizhou

为优化配置土地资源,利用信息熵理论,对三穗县2009-2013年土地利用结构的变化特点及规律进行分析,并构建GM(1,1)模型,利用2009-2013年的数据对模型进行检验,然后预测2014-2020年该县土地利用结构的信息熵、均衡度和优势度。结果表明:2009-2013年,三穗县土地利用变化主要表现为园地、林地、草地的减少,耕地、城镇村及工矿用地、交通运输用地、水域及水利设施用地、其他用地的增加,其中林地面积变化对信息熵的影响最大;三穗县土地利用结构的信息熵和均衡度在2009-2013年期间呈上升,优势度呈下降趋势,表明三穗县土地利用系统的有序性降低,集中性减弱,向着均衡化的方向发展;构建的GM(1,1)模型精度较高(c=0.10,p=1),预计2014-2020年三穗县土地利用结构的信息熵上升,均衡度增加,优势度下降。

The GM（1,1）model was established by analyzing the changing feature and law of land utilization structure in Sansui County,Guizhou during 2009-2013 based on information entropy theory,and the information entropy,equilibrium degree and dominant degree of land utilization structure in Sansui County during 2014-2020 are forecasted to optimize configuration of land resources.The land utilization change shows decrease of garden land,forest land and grassland and increase of arable land,land for mining,industry and towns,land for transportation,land for water and water conservancy facilities and other land during 2009-2013.The change of forest land area has the maximum effect on information entropy,and the information entropy and equilibrium degree of land utilization structure present a rising trend but the dominant degree presents a declining trend during 2009-2013,which indicates that the ordering and concentricity of the land utilization system are weakened and development direction of the land utilization system is toward equalization.The results predicted by the GM（1,1）model with higher precision（c=0,p=1）showed that information entropy and equilibrium degree of land utilization structure will go up and the dominant degree will go down during 2014-2020.