一种基于改进证据理论的推理决策方法

Reasoning Decision Method Based on Improved Theory of Evidence

针对证据理论的Zadeh悖论问题,提出了一种基于冲突一致度与交并集动态调整的推理决策方法。首先,该方法基于对冲突度与一致度的综合考虑,引入冲突一致度的概念,并基于冲突一致度对多源证据进行折扣操作。其次,基于交并集权重的动态调整对多源证据进行融合。然后,基于最大信任做出推理决策。最后,使用MATLAB构建仿真算例来对提出的方法与典型的证据合成方法进行比较验证。实验表明,该方法切实有效,能够避免悖论问题的产生,推理结果的区分能力优于典型方法。

According to the Zadeh paradox problem in current reasoning methods based on evidence theory,a combination method based on consistency conflict and intersection union dynamic adjustment was proposed.First,considering the combination of conflict and consistency,the concept of uncertainty was introduced which can be used to discount multi-source evidences.Then,new method combines multi-source evidence based on the dynamic adjustment of weight for the intersection and union.Thus,decision could be got by maximum belief.Finally,experiments in MATLAB were made to compare the validation of the proposed method with typical combination methods.Experiments show that the proposed method is effective,which can avoid generation of the paradox.The proposed method can get better results in reasoning discrimination than typical methods.