基于案例推理的油罐区重大事故应急资源配置技术

Oil storage tank area major accident emergency resources allocation technique based on case-based reasoning

油品储罐区是安全生产监管的重点,总体来说,我国缺乏处置油罐区重特大和复杂事故灾难的救援装备,应对重大、复杂事故的能力不足。目前,应急救援资源需求配置预测与估计以专家经验为主,在对油罐区应急资源进行重新分类的基础上,提出基于风险分析与案例推理的应急资源配置思路与框架,采用CASST-QRA定量风险评价软件实现对油罐区的风险分析,得到可能的事故类型、事故结果等计算结果,综合考虑事故对周边环境的影响,最终通过案例推理(CBR)分析过程来指导应急资源配置的数量、质量和类型,通过案例研究与计算,得到适用于油罐区重大事故的基于CBR的应急资源配置技术。

Oil storage tank area is the key of the safe production supervision.Overall, China lack of rescue equip-ment that disposal of major and complex accident disaster, and the ability to cope with major and complicated acci-dents suffer from inadequate capacity.At present, the emergency rescue resources configuration prediction and esti-mation is given priority to the expert experience.Emergency resources are reclassified in the article, ideas and framework that emergency resource allocation based on risk analysis and case-based reasoning are raised, and the CASST-QRA quantitative risk evaluation software is proposed to used to the risk analysis of oil tank area, then the results such as the possible accident type, accident result are obtained.Considering the impact of the accident on the surrounding environment, in the end, the quantity, quality and type of emergency resource allocation is ob-tained by case-based reasoning （ CBR） , through the case study and calculation, obtain a emergency resources allo-cation technique based on CBR suitable for crude oil storage tank area major accident.