基于数理统计的深水防喷器系统安全关键性失效分析

Analysis on safety critical failure of deepwater BOP system based on mathematical statistics

深水防喷器作为二级井控设备,是深水井控的一道关键屏障,其可靠性和可用性要求极高,在需要其工作时一旦发生失效,就会造成巨大的人员、环境损失。通过对国内外深水防喷器系统的失效和故障数据进行统计和分析,以深水防喷器系统故障造成的停工时间和故障前的平均工作时间,确定深水防喷器系统的失效率和故障时间。以切实的数据,给出深水防喷器系统各个部件发生各种模式失效的概率高低,从而为下一步的分析和评价确定了重点。

As the secondary well control equipment, deepwater blowout preventer （BOP） is a key barrier to control the deep wells, and it has high requirements on reliability and availability.Once failure occurs while the BOP is necessary to work, it will cause huge human and environmental losses.Based on the statistics and analysis on fail-ure and fault data of domestic and international deepwater BOP system, the failure rate and the fault time of deep-water BOP system were determined according to the downtime caused by failure and the average working time before failure.The frequencies of each failure mode happened in each parts of deepwater BOP system were obtained to de-termine the focus of further analysis and evaluation.