关税减让对中国进口日韩汽车贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Tariff Concessions Impact on China's Automobile Import Trade from Japan and Korea

选取2001—2010年中国进口日韩汽车贸易为样本面板数据,以比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论为基础,通过构建关税减让进口贸易模型,尝试分析关税减让对我国汽车进出口贸易的影响,旨在为当前的中日韩FTA贸易谈判提供参考依据。研究发现:(1)从PCT职务申请看,日本对中国继续保持绝对技术优势,而韩国的技术优势在逐渐缩小,而且中国在离合器、制动系统等零部件领域有反超的趋势;(2)进口关税的降低大大推动了日韩汽车的对华出口贸易,同时不可避免会对国内汽车造成一定冲击。(3)随着我国经济的持续增长,国内汽车消费需求急速增加,我国汽车关税进一步降低带来的影响甚至可能会超过入世时的影响。不仅如此,日本和韩国的汽车进口关税远低于中国,加之我国本身技术创新能力不高,汽车进口关税的减让应以日本和韩国对我国出口农产品关税的下降为前提,才能实现双赢。

This paper selected 2001 -2010 Korean and Japanese automotive import trade as a sample panel data, built trade models based on the theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory, analyzed the impact of the import tariff reduction on import and export automobile trade so as to provide a reference for the current CJK FTA trade negotiations. The study found ： （ 1 ） from the PCT job application perspective, Japancontinues to maintain absolute technological superiority , while South Korea ＇s technological advantage is gradually narrowing , and China is ahead of the trend in the field of clutch parts , brake systems ; （ 2 ） reduce import tariffs contributed significantly to the Japanese and Korean car exports to China, while it would inevitably bring a certain shock to domestic automobile industry; （ 3 ） with China＇s sus- tained economic growth and the rapid increase in domestic consumer demand for cars, the impact of further reducing China auto tariff may even exceed the impact of China entering WTO. Moreover, the car import tariff in Japan and South Korea is much lower than that of China, coupled with our limited ability in technology innovation. Therefore, car import tariff cuts should be based on the sharp decline of import tariff on Chinese agricultural products in Japan and South Korea in order to achieve a win - win .