基于光温指数的切花百合生育期预测模型

A Model of Predicting Development of Cut Lily Based on Photo-thermal Index

【目的】准确预测切花百合生产的上市期。【方法】根据切花百合(Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv.'Sorbonne')的生长发育对光温效应的反应,利用不同定植日期的试验数据,建立以光温指数(photo-thermal index,PTI)为尺度参数的切花百合生育期预测模型,并运用独立的数据对其进行验证。【结果】结果表明,模型对切花百合定植-出苗、出苗-展叶、展叶-现蕾、现蕾-采收各生育期持续时间预测值与实测值之间的回归估计标准误差(root mean squared error,RMSE)分别为1.58、2.23、2.54、1.58d;与有效积温法(RMSE分别为4.74、3.54、6.21、5.38d)为尺度的发育模型相比,模型的预测精度显著提高。【结论】该模型的预测结果能为切花百合的生产和调控提供理论依据。

[Objective]The aim of this study was to accurately predict the harvest period of cut lily.[Method]Based on photo-thermal responses of cut lily,experimental data from different planting dates were used to develop a model for development of Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv.＆#39;Sor-bonne＆#39;.Then,the model was tested by independent experimental date.[Results]The results showed that root mean squared error （RMSE）between simulated and observed data （planting, sprouting,leaf unfolding,visible bud and harvest）were 1.58,2.23,2.54 and 1.58,respective-ly.Compared with effective accumulated temperature method （RMSE 4.74,3.54,6.21 and 5.38）,the development model based photo-thermal index increased the simulation accuracy signif-icantly.[Conclusion]The model developed in this study can provide a theoretical foundation for predicting the harvest period of cut lily.