基于模糊综合评价的宁波暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

Risk division of rainstorm and water-logging disasters in Ningbo City based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑自然环境和社会经济状况以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险的危险性、敏感性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力,利用模糊综合评价法、AHP熵权法、GIS空间分析技术和网格GIS技术,建立宁波市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划模型,绘制宁波市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图。结果表明,宁波、北仑、宁海和象山城区以及鄞州中南部、余姚中部和北部具有更高的暴雨洪涝灾害风险;而慈溪北部、奉化西部、鄞州和北仑东部的暴雨洪涝灾害风险相对较低。灾级指数与暴雨洪涝风险指数的相关性较好,相关系数达到0.821 7,且通过了0.01显著性水平检验。

The study presents a methodology for building a risk division model and drawing a risk division map of rainstorm and water-logging disasters in Ningbo city. Based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） entropy method, GIS spatial analysis technique and gridding GIS technology, the model is built on the basis of natural and socioeconomic situations in addition to the hazard, sensitivity, exposure, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of rainstorm and water-logging. The results show that the high risk regions of rainstorm and water-logging disasters locate in the urban areas of Ningbo, Beilun, Ninghai and Xiangshan, south-central Yinzhou, central and northern Yuyao, while the low risk regions are the northern Cixi, western Fenghua, the east of Yinzhou and Beilun. Disaster level and risk index have a good correlation, and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.8217 and passes the significant test at 0.01 level.