关于山西煤矿百万吨死亡率GM(1,1)模型预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Coal Mine Million Tons Mortality in Shanxi Based on the GM( 1,1) Model

根据灰色系统预测理论,建立了煤矿百万吨死亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型对山西省近几年的煤矿百万吨死亡率进行统计预测,并验证了预测精度。结果表明:该预测模型的构造是准确的,对煤矿的安全生产提供了科学的理论依据。

According to the grey forecasting theory,we established the GM（1,1）dynamic prediction model of million tons mortality,predicted million tons mortality of Shanxi Province statistically in recent years.The pre-diction accuracy is validated.The results show that the establishment of the prediction model is accurate,pro-viding precise theory basis for coal mine safety production.