美国公债货币化背景下中国铸币税收益的国际流失

China's International Loss of Seigniorage in the Context of the U. S. Public Debt Monetization

在明确“铸币税收益的国际流失”概念的基础上，建立一个模拟中美两国公共部门预算约束的分析框架，探究美国公债货币化对中国的溢出效应，并对中国2005—2012年铸币税收益的国际流失进行估算和实证检验。研究发现铸币税收益的国际流失主要与外汇储备净变动相关，美国公债货币化通过货币释放的“数量效应”与汇率、利率变动等存量价值变动的“质量效应”影响中国铸币税收益，但并不必然导致中国铸币税收益的流失，公共部门资产负债结构缺陷才是该问题的根源。

Based on the new definition of＂ International Loss of Seigniorage＂, this paper explored the spillover effects of the U. S. public debt monetization on China＇ s Seigniorage through establishing a framework to simulate the public sector budget constraints of the U. S. and China. Meanwhile,we calculated China＇ s international loss of seigniorage from year 2005 to 2012. We found that China＇ s international loss of seigniorage mainly depended on the net change of foreign exchange reserves. Further empirical analysis also showed that the U. S. debt monetization could affect China＇ s seigniorage by both quantity and quality effect. However,the root cause of the seigniorage loss was the balance sheet structure flaws of Chi- na＇s public sector.