货币政策与民间借贷风险:中国2003～2012年的经验

Monetary Policy and Private Lending Risk:the Experience of China from 2003 to 2012

民间借贷风险多以各类集资纠纷等形式表现出来，成为金融不稳定的重要因素。货币政策周期性操作对民间借贷风险有何影响？以2003～2012年为窗口期，通过挖掘发生在中国各地的民间借贷纠纷案例中的关键数据，编制出民间借贷风险指数；在对法定准备金政策、公开市场业务、再贴现政策和信贷调控政策进行量化的基础上，构建民间借贷风险指标与货币政策变量之间的关系模型并进行实证检验，结果显示：不同货币政策工具对民间金融风险影响程度存在差异，法定存款准备金政策对民间借贷风险影v向大，不宜频繁使用，再贴现与公开市场操作在平衡宏观调控目标与控制民间借贷风险之间具有优势。

The private lending risk was more likely expressed as the forms of various Funding raising disputes, which originated from the borrowers＇ solvency problems. Whether Lhe change of monetary policy had an impact on the civil financial risk and how much of the influence were worth of consideration？ Based on the analysis of how monetary policy operated on the private lending risk, we took some key data, such as the amount, the involved aumber and the interest rates deprived from the private lending disputes cases happened in ）ur country from 2003 to 2012,to construct the model between the index of private lending risk and the monetary policy variables. Also we need to explore the inner relationship beween them. The empirical results show that the monetary policy tools do have an impact on he private lending risk to some different degree. More specifically, the implication for the nonetary policy operations is that we should not use the deposit reserve policy and the credit policy more frequently,while the rediscount policy and the open market operation have more ,dvantage on the balance of macroeconomic regulation and the private lending risk control.