城市暴雨灾害风险评估及防御对策研究——以江苏省南京市为例

The Urban Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment and Defensive Measures——A Case Study of Nanjing of Jiangsu Province

以江苏省南京市为例,从气象灾害发生维度评估城市暴雨气象灾害风险性。从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三方面构建南京暴雨灾害风险评价体系,采用2003-2012年统计数据对南京暴雨灾害风险评价指标进行等级划分,构建隶属函数判定评价因素与评价等级的隶属程度,建立二级模糊综合评价模型评估南京暴雨灾害风险,并选取2012年南京暴雨实例进行数据演算,验证该评价模型的有效性,最后提出南京暴雨灾害的防御对策。

From the dimension of meteorological disaster occurrence,Nanjing city is taken as a case to re-search the urban rainstorm disaster risk.Nanjing rainstorm disaster risk evaluation index system is established, which includes the formative factors,subsequently environment and hazard-affected body.Based on the relevant data from 2003 to 201 2,the evaluation indexes are graded.The subordination functions are constructed to judge the degrees of subordination between the evaluation factors and the evaluation grades.The secondary fuzzy comprehen-sive evaluation model is established for torrential rainstorm disaster risk evaluation.Nanjing rainstorm example in 201 2 is selected for data analysis to verify the validity of the model.The relevant defensive countermeasures are put forward.