沿海城市多灾种耦合危险性评估的初步研究——以福建泉州为例

Preliminary Study on Integrated Assessment for Multi-hazard of Coastal City: Case Study of Quanzhou,Fujian Province

如何处理区域内多灾种之间的相互作用关系是当前多灾种综合风险评估研究的热点和难点之一。在梳理沿海城市多灾种之间相互作用关系的基础上,提出一种基于触发关系的多灾种耦合危险性评估方法。首先选取多指标建立单灾种分级方案,计算单灾种初始危险性指数;然后构建基于触发关系的多灾种耦合规则,结合GIS技术进行空间耦合,计算耦合后的危险性指数;最后对耦合后的多灾种危险性的综合进行了探讨。以福建省泉州市为例进行了案例研究,结果表明:该方法在多灾种耦合危险性评估中具有可行性,为后续多脆弱性和多灾种综合风险的研究提供支持,为决策者进行科学风险管理提供依据。

In recent years,more and more attention has been paid on multi-hazard assessment.However,the analysis of intricate relations among multiple hazards is still in the early stages of development.On the basis of i-dentification of relations among multiple hazards in the environment of coastal city,an integrated assessment ap-proach for multi-hazard is developed.First,an indicator-based approach is used to calculate the initial hazard index of each hazard.Second,a GIS-based triggering-triggered model is established to modify the initial index.Third, two ways are discussed to generate integrated multi-hazard map according to the updated hazard index.The method is then applied to Qauanzhou City.The application shows that the method is feasible in the assessment of integrated multi-hazard,which can be used as a supporting tool for the on-going research of multi-hazard risk assessment.Be-sides,the obtained results,the integrated hazard map along with a series of single hazard maps,can provide scien-tific evidence for the local risk management.