基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例

Risk Assessment Model of Drought Disaster Based on Information Diffusion and Bootstrap: A Case Study in Anhui

旱灾风险管理是抗旱减灾的科学手段、干旱及旱灾研究的重要方向,定量评估旱灾风险是旱灾风险管理的核心内容。为降低各种不确定性因素影响下旱灾风险评估结果的误差,提高结果的可靠性,提出运用信息扩散法估计旱灾损失的超越概率,结合自助法的区间估计算法,建立基于信息扩散与自助法的灾害风险评估模型,用不同置信水平下旱灾损失对应超越概率的置信区间来反映旱灾风险。将该模型运用于安徽省农业易旱地区干旱灾害风险评估,计算并确定在置信水平为0.75时安徽省易旱地区的旱灾风险区间评估结果合理、可靠,可为抗旱规划提供科学的决策依据。

Drought risk management is a scientific way of drought mitigation and an important field in drought research. The risk quantitative assessment is the core of drought risk management. In order to reduce the error that caused by uncertainties and improve the reliability, a drought risk assessment model based on information diffusion and bootstrap is built, and the information diffusion and bootstrap are used to estimate the exceeding probabilities of drought loss and confidence interval of exceeding probabilities respectively. And then, the drought risk levels are presented by confidence interval. The model is used to assess drought risk of drought-prone areas in Anhui Prov- ince, and the calculations showed that the assessment results under 0. 75 confidence level is reasonable and relia- ble, which would provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation planning.