江西省工业二氧化硫排放量与消减量的灰色预测

The Grey Prediction to Emission Amount and Reduction Amount of Industrial SO_2 in Jiangxi

本文基于灰色预测理论,以江西省2004-2010年统年鉴中工业二氧化硫排放量与消减量为依据,建立精度较高的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型。经过残差检验,该模型完全符合精度要求,并对未来江西省工业二氧化硫排放量及消减量进行预测,为将来二氧化硫的总量控制提供依据。

Based on the theory of grey prediction, the grey prediction model GM （ 1, 1 ） is successfully construc- ted by the date of emission amount and reduction amount of industrial SO2 in JiangXi. After the residual test, the model is found feasible and adaptable. The emission amount and reduction amount of industrial SO2 in Jiangxi is predicted, the model can provide evidence for gross regulation of SO2.