云南省红河州农产品物流需求预测分析

Prediction Analysis of Logistics Demand for Agricultural Products in Honghe Prefecture of Yunnan Province

近年来随着云南省经济的不断发展,特别是"桥头堡"战略的提出和实施,地处云南省东南部的红河州由于其特殊的地理位置成为了我国西南发展对外贸易经济的重要通道。本文在对红河州农产品物流发展现状进行简要阐述的基础上,选取红河州2002—2011年间农林牧渔业产值、社会消费品零售总额、农业机械总动力、农民人均纯收入、全州贸易进出口总额、固定资产投资六个影响红河州农产品物流需求的因素,运用SPSS软件建立多元回归模型对红河州2012—2014年农产品物流需求进行了预测分析,其研究结果可以为红河州农产品物流今后的发展提供一定的参考。

In recent years, with the continues development of economy in Yunnan Province, especially with the proposal and implementation of＆quot;bridgehead＆quot;strategy, Honghe Prefecture becomes an important channel of de-velopment in foreign trade and economy in Southwest China because of its special location. This paper briefly ex-pounds the status quo of development in agricultural products logistics in Honghe Prefecture. By choosing the gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, social retail goods, total power of agricul-tural machinery, the per capita net income of farmers, total value of the imports and exports, and investment in fixed assets, among six influencing factors for Honghe Prefecture from 2002 to 2011, we use SPSS to establish a multiple regression model for forecasting logistics demands for agricultural products from 2012 to 2014. The re-sults can provide a reference for the development of agricultural products logistics in Honghe Prefecture.