中国出海口环境安全影响因素量化分析

Quantitative analysis on factors influencing security of China's access to the sea

"第一岛链"上众多岛屿间的海峡是我国船舶远洋运输的"出海口".针对我国目前严峻的出海口安全问题,利用鱼骨图梳理主要安全影响因素,并在考虑专家可靠性水平和自信水平的基础上,构建三角模糊数判断矩阵,依据模糊层次分析法,对各影响因素进行排序.结果表明:影响我国出海口安全的最重要因素是海峡控制国军队武器部署情况、控制国海上巡航范围、控制国海上军演频度、控制国对我国外交友好程度.研究结果有利于全面准确了解我国出海口安全现状,为有重点地制定改善措施提供科学的参考依据.

Channels between islands of ＂The first island chain＂become the only access to the sea for China＇s ocean transport vessels. To understand the security situation of the access,the paper used fishbone diagram to sort out the influencing factors,and constructed triangle fuzzy matrix considering the level of reliability and self-confidence of experts.Then,the general importance of each factor was obtained and ranked according to fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Results show that the most important factors are deployment of troops and weapons＇ of state,range of maritime military patrol of state,frequent of military exercises at sea of state as well as the diplomatic friendliness on China of state in which has the most control on the strait. The results are helpful to understand the security situation more comprehensive and accurately,which can provide scientific reference views to formulate improvement measures.