北极“东北航道“开通对中欧贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型分析

Effect of the Opening of Arctic Northeast Route on the China-EU——Trade based on the trade gravity model

通过搜集中国与欧洲17个国家2001—2012年的贸易数据,利用贸易引力模型来分析港口之间的航行距离对中欧贸易的影响,在比较北极"东北航线"相对于传统的中欧航线的具体航程缩短量的基础上,来估计北极"东北航道"开通对中欧贸易的提升作用,并具体计算出由我国自北向南大连、上海、广州三大港口出发经东北航线到欧洲对中欧贸易的不同程度的影响,得出东北航线对中欧贸易有极大的促进作用这一结论;最后基于研究结果并结合北极"东北航线"对相对于传统的中欧航线在航行安全上的优势提出我国对北极航线应采取的措施。

This paper gathers the panel data of 17 European countries from 2001 to 2012, analyzes on the effect the sailing distance between ports of the China-Europe by using the trade gravity model. On the basis of the former work, it estimates the effect of the opening of Arctic northeast route on the China-EU trade and further points out the importance of ＂northeast route＂ to the China＇s export trade.