减排政策作用下的新能源内生技术变化建模

Modeling for new energy endogenous technological change under action of emission reduction policies

为定量分析中国减排政策与新能源技术变化的交互影响和减排机理,本文采用自顶向下建模方法构建关于能源-经济关系的综合均衡分析模型,区分重要的能源部门,并利用学习曲线描述新能源内生技术变化过程,分析了碳税通过减少能源需求,增加新能源替代和促进能源技术进步三种途径的减排效应.模拟结果发现,节能效应在减排政策实施前期发挥主导作用;但长期来看,碳税可以加速新能源技术演化的进程,能源替代与技术进步将逐步成为减排的主要来源.另外,这三种减排效应的作用还直接受到一些关键因素的影响,例如能源需求的价格弹性,能源间替代弹性以及技术学习率等.

To quantitatively analyze the interactions between carbon reduction polices and endogenous technical changes in China, this paper builds an aggregate equilibrium model on energy-economic links based on the top-down approach. This model clearly distinguishes important energy sectors and portrays new energy technical changes using learning curves. Then, this model decomposes the reduction effect of carbon taxes into three parts： reducing energy demand, increasing new energy substitution and enhancing technical change. The simulation results show that the energy-saving effect will play a dominant role in the early stage of car- bon mitigation while the energy-substitution and technology-acceleration effect will gradually become more important in the long run. In addition, price elasticity of energy demand, elasticity of inter-energy substitution and technical learning rates are also key factors influencing the reduction effect.