我国汽车行业产能过剩的计量测度及对策研究——基于产出缺口法对我国汽车产能过剩的计量分析

Measurement and Countermeasures of China′s Automobile Industry Excess Capacity——Analysis on the measurement of China′s automobile production capacity excess based on the output gap

目前,我国汽车行业存在一定的产能过剩风险,并缺乏相应的产能监测预警机制。基于产能过剩的计量测度方法,对汽车产能情况进行了计量分析。通过采用HP滤波方法,分离时间序列的趋势成分和循环成分,计算汽车产出缺口,得出我国近几年汽车行业存在一定产能过剩,但正逐步缓解。最后,提出了指导性的对策建议,通过建立健全产能监测预警机制等措施,引导行业理性投资避免产能过剩,促进汽车行业健康发展。

At present, china automobile industry is faced with a certain degree of risk of overcapacity, and lacks the corresponding capacity of monitoring and early warning mechanism. Based on the measurement method of excess capacity. We conducted econometric analysis on vehicle capacity. According to uses the HP filtering method to calculate China＇s automobile output gap, by separating the time series trend components and cycle components, we calculate the automobile overcapacity. We conclude that the automobile industry in our country there is some excess capacity in recent years, hut is gradually ease. At last, we propose relevant ountermeasures and suggestions. According to establishing the production monitoring and early warning ecbanism and other measures, we can guide enterprises rational investment industry to avoid excess capacity, and promote the healthy development of the automobile industry.