基于灰色关联分析的达州历年洪灾等级评价研究

Research on Dazhou's Floods Evaluation Rating Over the Years Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

针对达州地区洪水灾害,从经济损失、农作物受灾情况、受灾人口、死亡人口、失踪人口和房屋倒塌情况六个方面构建评价指标,应用灰色关联模型计算达州地区近7年的洪灾灾情的关联度,确定每年的洪灾灾情等级。评价结果显示与达州的实际灾情比较相符,从而为当地洪灾灾情等级的综合评价提供依据。

According to the Dazhou＇s disaster of floods, this paper constructs an evaluation system based on the economic loss, crops disaster, affected population, number of dead and missing and housing collapse. Then, grey correlation model is applied to compute the correlation degree of recently seven years and so to determine the annual flood grade. The result shows that our conclusion is concordant with the actual disaster fact, and thus provides the basis for comprehensive evaluation of local flood level.