南京市气象因素对居民心血管疾病死亡的影响

Impacts of meteorological factors on death caused by cardiovascular disease in Nanjing City

目的通过研究气象因素对心血管疾病死亡风险的影响,为患病居民提供应对气候变化的针对性预防措施,从而帮助患者有效延长存活期、提高生存质量。方法采用回顾性调查的方法收集资料,分析南京城区2003-2007年气候变化对居民心血管疾病死亡的影响。分析各气象因素与疾病日死亡人数的相关关系,并进行曲线估计分析。结果南京市区2003-2007年居民心死亡人数有所上升,但死亡率无上升趋势(X2趋势=3.71,P=0.054)。夏季,当日最高温度高于32℃时,心血管疾病的死亡人数增加(Z=9.24,P=0.001);冬季,随着日最低温度的降低,心血管疾病死亡人数逐渐增加,但是没有死亡人数明显增加温度转折点。平均气压与之呈正相关(r=0.27,P=0.001);相对湿度(r=-0.04,P=0.001)、降水量(r=-0.12,P=0.001)与心血管疾病死亡呈负相关。结论夏季心血管疾病死亡人数明显增多的日最高温度的临界值是32℃,低气压、潮湿的环境会增加心血管疾病的死亡人数。

Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality, so as to prolong survival time and improve the life quality of patients with cardiovascular system diseases in. Methods A retrospective survey was used to collect relative information to analyze the impact of climate change on the death of cardiovascular system disease in Nanjing from 2003 to 2007. Curve estimation analysis was used to analyze correlations between various meteorological factors. Results During 2003 - 2007, the death numbers of residents in Nanjing with cardiovascular diseases increased. The difference of mortality rates, were not statistically significant（x^2 _trend =3.71, P =0.054）. The deaths of the cardiovascular disease showed a sharp increasing tendency when the daily highest temperature reached to 32 ℃ in summer, with a statistieal significance （Z = 9. 24,P = 0. 001 ）. In winter, eardiovaseular death toll increased grad- ually with the decrease of daily minimum temperature, huts no temperature turning point was noted with increased number of deaths. Average barometric presure had a positive correlation （r = 0. 27, P = 0. 001 ）. Relative humidity （r = -0. 04, P = 0. 001 ） and precipitation（ r = -0. 12, P = 0. 001 ） were negatively correlated with ineidence of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions The result indicates that critical temperature to increase the deaths of eardiovaseular system disease in the summer is 32 ℃. Low pressure and moist environment will also increase the mortality of cardiovascular disease.