基于逐步回归分析的话务预测研究

Research on telephone traffic forecasting based on stepwise regression analysis

针对现有话务预测模型变量单一、预测误差大等问题引入了逐步回归分析法;结合海河银行信用卡呼叫中心实际需求,对话务数据进行了抽取集成等预处理操作;随之建立了各影响因素的一元回归模型,并在此基础上得到了多元逐步回归的话务预测模型;最后将此建模方法与其他分析法进行了综合比较并给出评价。

Firstly, the method of stepwise regression analysis was introduced, aiming at the chief problem that existing in current traffic forecasting model. And combined with actual demand of the credit card call center of Haihe bank, the pre-processing of the traffic data such as extraction and integration were done. Then the unitary regression models were constructed. And on this basis, traffic forecasting model of multivariate stepwise regression was studied in details. Finally, this method was contrasted with other analysis method and overall evaluations were made.