窟野河径流突变点分析

Analysis on Abrupt Change Points of Kuye River Runoff by Mann- Kendall and Pettitt

根据窟野河流域气象和水文资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变点检验相结合的方法,对该流域径流突变点进行检验,并应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对流域降水量、蒸发量进行趋势分析。结果表明:窟野河的年径流量在1979年和1996年发生了突变,初步分析这主要是20世纪80年代初期开始实施的水保措施和20世纪90年代后期煤炭大规模开采造成的;窟野河流域年降水量、年蒸发量从20世纪60年代开始均呈逐年减少的趋势,相对年蒸发量而言,降水量的减少速率较小,并且其变化趋势均不明显。

Based on the meteorological and hydrological data collected from the Kuye River,the abrupt change points of the runoff were de-tected jointly using Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point test. Meanwhile,Mann-Kendall rank correlation method was em-ployed to perform trend tests on the precipitation and evaporation. The results show that the runoff of the river altered abruptly in 1979 and 1996 respectively. That is because of the soil and water conservation measures practiced in early 1980s’and a large scale of coal mining in later 1990s’,indicated by the preliminary analyses. Annual precipitation and evaporation exhibit a trend of reduction from 1960s’. Com-pared with annual evaporation,the decrease speed of the former is slower,and the change tendency of both is not evident.