变化环境下大汶河水资源演变趋势及影响分析

Water Resources Evolution and Its Influence Analysis in Dawen River Basin Under the Changing Environment

应用泰安市大汶口水文站1955—2012年降水量、径流量和蒸发量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法对不同时期各水文要素演变趋势进行了分析,同时用R/S法对每个水文要素的变异点及持续性进行了分析,并用Spearman相关分析法对各水文要素间的相关关系进行了分析。结果表明:年降水量呈微弱上升趋势,变化趋势呈逆持续性;径流量呈微弱下降趋势,变化趋势为逆持续性;蒸发量呈明显下降趋势,超过了5%的显著性水平,未来的变化趋势将与过去的变化趋势保持一致;降水量与径流量的相关度较高,降水量与蒸发量、径流量与蒸发量呈负相关,相关度较低。

According to the precipitation,runoff and evaporation in the same period of Dawenkou Hydrological Station in Taian City from 1955 to 2012,Mann-Kendall trend analysis method was adopted to analyze the evolution trends of hydrological elements in different peri-ods;R/S method was adopted to analyze the change point and persistence of each hydrological element and Spearman analysis method was applied to analyze the relationship between each hydrological elements. The results show that the annual precipitation increases slightly with slow inverse change trend;the annual runoff decreases slightly with slowly inverse change trend;the annual evaporation decreases obviously and the future trend is consistent with the past trend under more than 5% significant level;the precipitation is high correlated with runoff and the evaporation is negatively correlated with precipitation and runoff. The research results have important practical significance for the region-al water resources rational allocation and sustainable utilization.