建筑火灾财产损失评估模型的研究

Study on property loss assessment models in building fires based on underwriting

从保险承保的实际需要出发,提出基于事件树的建筑火灾财产损失的概率分布及分析流程。将建筑火灾损失场景分为正常期望损失(NLE)、可能的最大损失(PML)、最大可预测损失(MFL)、最大可能损失(MPL)。利用事件树结合概率的方法对4种场景下损失的大小及发生的概率进行估算。以一个商业仓库为例,对其火灾损失大小及概率进行了评估,得出了自动火灾探测系统没有成功启动的情况下各种可能损失的概率以及占总价值的百分比,为保险公司确定核保策略提供技术帮助。

Aiming at the practical need of insurance company, the probability distribution and an analytical method for property loss assessment in building fires based on event tree was put forward. The total fire loss scenario can be classified as four kinds, i.e. Normal Loss Expectancy（NLE）, Probable Maximum Loss （PML）, Maximum maximum possible loss（MPL）. Foreseeable Loss （MFL） and The probability and fire loss of the four scenarios can be estimated by combining event tree and their probability. Finally a commercial warehouse was used as an example, and its fire probability and fire loss were assessed. Also all kinds of possible loss probabilities and the percentage of total value were listed. This study gave some technical help to underwriting strategy for insurance company.